Well for those of you who have followed my blog about this case, you probably know by now that I’ve leaned towards the abduction theory in the Maura Murray disappearance, however this has been turned on it’s head in my opinion. I was inspired by a forensics true crime show to develop a method to calculate the odds of Maura being abducted. The method puts together data from different factual information to come up with probability and odds of an event happening. For those of you who follow my new reddit, you might know what I’m referring to as I covered it on a few of my posts.

The first data I wanted to analyse was the amount of vehicles that would go by on a Monday evening on route 112 in Haverhill between the hours of  7 PM to 8 PM. As this is a dark secluded road and that most of the people that travel the road are heading to neighbouring towns, I surmised that 5 cars an hour was a good point to start. To calculate the average time between cars going by I simply took the 5 cars and divided it by the time (5/60 = 12). In other words, a vehicle would go by this stretch of road an average of every 12 minutes. Now Maura’s accident occurred approximately at 7:26 PM which means she was most likely the second vehicle to drive past that stretch. Butch Atwood then showed up making him the 3rd vehicle to pull up. So the probability of a vehicle going by in the time span is 5/60 or 1/12….

Next I looked at the amount of registered sex offenders in comparison to the amount of population. I found that there was approximately 20 sex offenders and a population of 4697. In other words 1/235 (approximately). I then looked at the percentage of the population that is capable of committing murder. I averaged that 1% of the population would be capable this 47/4697 or 1/99.

I then looked at the murders in the Haverhill area between 2004 to 2014. There was only 2 murders in the past ten years or 2/3650 or 1/1825. After accumulating these numbers I decided to average them out to see what the probability and odds of something like this happening, and the results were startling. Before I reveal the results, I will say that I have believed all along that she had been abducted and I was in no way trying to disprove this theory I simply wanted to find the truth.

After averaging the results I was left with the result of 4/2171 or 1/543. So by adding the numbers we have the probability of Maura’s chances of being abducted by a random dirtbag. The probability of something like this happening is 1/543 = 0.0018 or 0.18%. This seems like very low probability (less than a quarter of a percent). The odds of Maura being abducted by some random dirtbag is 1:542 (not very good odds). While I’m not saying that it’s impossible, it is certainly improbable at least with the data I’ve gathered.

In my opinion this leaves only a couple options in my opinion. The first option and most likely option in my opinion is that Maura wasn’t abducted and wasn’t travelling alone and someone was following behind and she knew they would be there any minute. This person wasn’t a stranger but rather known to Maura and either was a friend or a family member. They picked up Maura and something happened to her along the way (quite possibly something accidental). The second option which I’m sure James Renner will love me bringing up is the possibility that this entire thing was Maura’s attempt at starting a new life. It’s true that her favourite movie was Bottle Rocket. This particular movie is about thieves who try and escape the law. There is actually a scene in the movie where their stolen car breaks down near a hairpin turn (similar to Maura’s accident site). Perhaps Maura was trying to recreate her favourite movie and pull off the getaway that the main characters were trying to accomplish or perhaps the odds were not in her favour that night.



18 comments on “Was Maura Murray actually abducted?

  • I understand your theory but I just can’t see a young girl skipping town with uncashed checks she received or ws going to receive from her jobs. I know she needed money and if I were in her shoes, I wouldn’t leave town without them…considering she almost cleared out her bank account. Maybe she was trying to take that money to help her sister (husband’s money situation) in Vermont but never got there.

    • I’m not necessarily saying that she skipped town. I just think with the info I was able to gather, the “local dirtbag” theory really goes right out the window which in my opinion means that Maura was most likely travelling in tandem with someone, who was likely following behind her because her vehicle could break down. I actually have a working theory on who this person was, but I won’t share that on the internet….. All I will say is that it is most likely someone close to Maura.

      • You’re correct the odds don’t favor this scenario.

        The problem is, there were at least two vehicles in the area at the time that are unaccounted for, the occupants unknown, their purposes unknown.

        The #001 SUV and The Red Truck.

        Add to that: The Londonderry Ping. VT or NH? Shifting witness testimony; that’s #1. The jurisdiction argument. The doctored Accident Report, incomplete with at least 20 anomalies within. NO debris on Rt112. An accident without crash debris or skid marks? Photographs? Finally, the conclusion of The Maura Murray Task Force: Foul Play.

        • I totally agree with you. In my opinion the accident scene was staged and the fact that a red pick up truck with Massachusetts plate was seen less than a mile from where Maura’s vehicle was found and just moments before police arrived on scene indicates the potential for the tandem theory. While I used to be dead set on the “foul play” theory, I’m seriously reconsidering that stance. Maura was a very intelligent person and if anyone could pull off a disappearing act, it’s her. She certainly had reasons to want to disappear and start a new life. One thing to consider is that IF she decided to disappear on purpose, the attention that her case has received won’t help her to come forward anytime soon.

          • I don’t think that attention will completely abate. The book will assure that.

            Lump me in with that lot who feel that, despite her being an utter stranger to us despite what is known of her via the case, she wouldn’t “disappear” and utterly drop her family for a “new” life. It’s not just what Fred Murray and her immediate family has said, her friends say this too. A simple phone call would clear that up, she would ease peoples’ minds and the case closed. That hasn’t happened because she can’t make that call.

            I find it utterly ridiculous she took one last hike up on one of those trails. She wasn’t prepared for such a trek.

            Most likely she met her fate back near i91 and someone tried to clean up the mess. Or she left on foot and got a ride upstream.

            Things I don’t believe: RF and BA lied to degrees but I don’t think they did anything. Not yet, anyway. The cops scoped his trailer however thoroughly. Again, why do this in the middle of working on your dream house? Doesn’t make sense. But then – it could be a crime of opportunity. No evidence of crime, no FBi, period. Tandem driver? I think there’s a real possibility someone from Londonderry was following, but how does that work? Whom was she in contact with up to that point in which this plan would’ve worked? If there was, the police have yet to reveal who that person was. It could’ve been, “I’ll park my car here, you pick me up there.” Well, where is there? Did she connect via payphone to avoid a trail? She did leave a trail and that inconsistency leads me to believe there was no grand scheme here. But then, there is evidence of subterfuge from her side and other sides. At least, that’s the way things seem now. If and once explained, it would be a collective, “Ohhh …”, but right now nothing really seems sensible.

            As it is, this case is at another impasse. Too wide a net has been cast. It was a noble effort but as always, we need more information.

            I think “Witness A”‘s account really cast a lot of doubt on the official narrative and gives credence to the findings of The Task Force. The police have done little to limit the PR damage done to the state, either. Every major case nowadays releases any surviving media of a person’s final acts. This case instead has received a black out from the media. No ATM video, “You did not see that SUV that night.” We don’t even know if the stills from that video show her hair up or down. Some of LE’s movements have been suspicious, you must admit.

          • There’s a lot of complexity in this case which is probably why it’s still unsolved. One thing I will say is that Maura’s life was not picture perfect. Her parents divorced when she was young due to an affair on her mother’s part. The man she had an affair with fathered Maura’s younger brother Kurt. He later killed his own brother in a dispute. Keep in mind, Maura lived with her mother. Her sister Julie didn’t talk to Maura’s mother and had a strained relationship with Maura. Her other sister Kathleen became addicted to drugs as did her older brother. Her father Fred knowing full well that Maura needed a new vehicle went and purchased a brand new vehicle and then flaunted it when he came down the weekend prior to her disappearance. Also, her boyfriend Bill the so called “nice guy” was cheating on Maura with one of her sister Julie’s friends. While it’s hard to fathom someone walking out on their family, I can’t blame Maura here.

            One thing I will say is that the night before her disappearance, she was on her computer till 4 am. I know she was looking for a condo or a place to stay, however I don’t believe that law enforcement has divulged everything about her computer use that night. I believe it’s likely that she chatted with someone online quite possibly plotting her disappearance. The place where her vehicle was found was very strategic as well I believe. Haverhill is well below the average for police coverage in New Hampshire. The average for New Hampshire is approximately 2 police officers for every 1000 citizens however in Haverhill, there are only approximately 1.5 per 1000 and the night she disappeared, only one officer was on call (Cecil Smith). Also, the fact that the vehicle was located near the White Mountains is symbolic in my opinion. Maura climbed the White Mountains many times with her father. I believe her ditching her vehicle near the White Mountains was her symbolically leaving her life behind…. I could be wrong about this and foul play may be involved, but this definitely should be considered in my opinion. I think she had motive to want to leave her life behind and she had the ability to do it. I do wonder whatever happened to her old computer as I believe that it holds the key to where she is….

      • Why would Maura take her car? Why wouldn’t that person just pick her up at her dorm late at night and leave her car, since it wasn’t running well?

        • Hey Jo Jo, many of the how to disappear guides suggest ditching your vehicle. It’s a way to throw people off your trail. If Maura would have left her vehicle in Umass, then the search would have started there and not in Haverhill. I think she dumped her vehicle there to make people think she was heading to the white mountains…..

  • Was the computer part of that pile of her belongings the police returned to the family in the spring only to ask for it back later? I can’t recall.

  • There have been many women missing lately and their possessions are left behind in their cars, suxh as phone, purse, etc. Their windows are rolled down a bit, too. Just wondering, could these be traffic stops by cop impersonators and the rest is…? Where are all the missing going and why aren’t they found. You’d think with all the advanced technology that exists today no one would remain a missing person.

    • To be honest, I think that the internet, especially the dark web or deep web is to blame for many of these disappearances. There are sites on the deep web where women and children are sold as slaves for the highest bidders. I don’t know if these women are abducted by people who pretend to be officers. One method that these perps use is a ruse where they will purposely collide with the victim’s vehicle and when the person gets out to exchange insurance info, they are abducted. This happens at intersections because the perp would have an excuse (I didn’t see the light was red)…. There’s also instances where they will follow a vehicle closely and get into the other lane, role their window down to talk and ask the person to pull over…. I guess it’s a day and age where people have to be very aware….

  • Interesting. I’ve tried to think through the odds as well. But the problem I always end up with is that all scenarios are by definition, outliers, therefore don’t seem to lend themselves to probabilistic modeling. The one that made the most sense to me is the most sense to me would be what factors predict what outcomes in missing persons cases. In other words: characteristics of victim + environmental conditions + X3 + X4 = % probability of abduction vs suicide ect.

    • Good point about the characteristics of the victim. I completely agree with this. Some people are at a higher risk of being a victim based solely on their lifestyle and the choices they make. For example, Maura decided to travel alone at night with a vehicle that was running on two cylinders. These choices made her more vulnerable especially if her vehicle broke down.

      Environment conditions is also important to look at. If you look at the disappearance of Jennifer Kesse, I believe the environment played a huge role. She lived in a very high crime area and there was a prison only a mile from her house. If someone got parole they just needed to walk a short distance to her house…. It is difficult to put together a formula to calculate the probabilities of abduction vs suicide etc but evaluating the different factors definately helps evaluate everything.

  • At an old Renner entry, http://mauramurray.blogspot.com/2015/11/maura-was-not-abducted-by-killer-heres.html , banter got into the usual statistical probabilities.

    One guy corrected the participants, Renner included, by proffering the following:

    “So the correct question is not the chance that a string of bad luck would befall a young woman at random, but **out of young women who have disappeared and been missing for 12 years**, what fraction of THOSE were murdered. And there I would say the chance is quite high.”

    I agree. A woman is missing for nearly 12yrs. Many in the public following this disappearance believe there was no opportunistic perp either on-scene, roadside, or at any dwelling with whom she may have come into contact. I think that the more she moved, the higher the chances. Also, there are a disproportionate number of registered sex offenders in the region and that only accounts for the registered ones. It doesn’t account for those uncaught or those passing through.

    I’m still suspicious of the motivations behind those who refuse property searches.

    I’m also thinking it very possible she fell into an unmarked well or dry well. A search of those refused properties would eliminate this notion.

    I seriously doubt she died of exposure – reading “Not Without Peril”, she would’ve known to prepare for the elements or to avoid such a situation.

    Again, The Maura Murray Task Force came to the conclusion that “Maura Murray’s involuntary actions began at the time the damage to The Saturn was incurred.” Roughly quoting there.

    For transparency, I’m posting this over at the general sub-Reddit as well.

    • At this point I’m not sold on any theory, all I will say is that IF Maura was infact murdered, I believe it was at the hands of someone close to her who knew her and not at the hands of some random stranger. While I agree that there are many sex offenders in the area, the murder rate is extremely low for not only Haverhill, but the surrounding areas as well. The main crimes in the area are theft and burglaries (usually to support a drug addiction). While I do have a theory, I will never reveal it since it implicates a member of her family.

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